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taishiro
When free cash flow turns negative and future commitments harden into multi-hundred-billion-dollar rigidities, the market stops giving the benefit of the doubt. Credit markets are already reacting, with CDS spreads hitting records.
Equity follows when dilution or higher-cost debt enters the picture.
The bull case remains coherent.
taishiro
Its AI spend primarily feeds the ad machine and experimental agents — an approach that works until the returns lag the cost of capital and the locked-in lease obligations become binding.
We’ve seen versions of this movie before in crypto, where overbuilt mining capacity and L1 infrastructure never found product-market fit at the scale of the spend; in DeFi, where TVL chased incentives while unit economics stayed negative; and in traditional growth stocks that treated CapEx as an infinite option
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